In the shadow of COVID-19, the specter of another global pandemic looms large, and experts are sending out a clear warning. The recent diphtheria outbreak in Australia and the rapid spread of Ebola in the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Uganda are not isolated incidents but harbingers of a larger threat. According to Professor Adrian Esterman, the chair of biostatistics at Adelaide University, the chances of another global pandemic are "very high" and "almost certain" in our lifetime. This isn't just a doomsday prediction; it's a call to action, a wake-up call that demands we take a step back and reassess our preparedness. What makes this particularly fascinating is the stark contrast between the relatively low case fatality rate of COVID-19 and the devastating impact of diseases like Ebola, which has a case fatality rate of 30% for the mildest form and a staggering 80-90% for the most severe. This raises a deeper question: how well are we prepared for the next pandemic, and what lessons have we learned from COVID-19 that we can apply to the future? One thing that immediately stands out is the importance of preparedness. Australia, unlike during the initial COVID-19 outbreak, is now in a much better position. We have our own Centre for Disease Control (CDC), purpose-built quarantine stations, a Moderna factory capable of producing vaccines, and stockpiled drugs and equipment. We also have some experience managing a pandemic, which is crucial. However, this doesn't mean we can rest on our laurels. The risk of another major pandemic in the near future is high, and we must continue to develop and update our pandemic preparedness plans at national, state, and territory levels. This includes working on social determinants of health, such as access to health services and trust in health authorities. What many people don't realize is that the threat of a pandemic is not just about the virus itself but also about the social and economic impacts. The COVID-19 pandemic has shown us the importance of effective communication and consistent lockdown rules and restrictions. In my opinion, the key to preparedness is not just in the infrastructure we build but also in the people we train. We need to ensure that our future experts and leaders are exposed to the lessons learned during COVID-19 and are prepared to deal with the next pandemic. This means including COVID-19 learnings in university curricula and continuing to develop and update pandemic preparedness plans. From my perspective, the H5N1 avian flu is a particularly concerning virus. While no human-to-human transmissions have been reported yet, the human mortality rate is high, and the strain has already killed millions of birds and infected other animals around the world. The good news is that there is a good vaccine against it, and it's actually made by our own manufacturer. So, if H5N1 were to become the next pandemic, we would be well-prepared. However, we must also be aware of the declining trust in public health and the spread of misinformation online. This has contributed to declining vaccination rates and the resurgence of diseases like measles in Australia. Personally, I think it's crucial that we continue to educate the public about the importance of vaccination and the risks associated with declining vaccine coverage. We need to remind ourselves that no one is safe until everyone is safe. In conclusion, the threat of another global pandemic is real, and we must take steps to prepare for it. This includes investing in infrastructure, training our future experts and leaders, and continuing to develop and update our pandemic preparedness plans. While the risk is high, we have the tools and the knowledge to be ready. What we need now is action, not just words, and a commitment to ensuring that everyone is protected. From my perspective, the future of global health depends on it.
